NYGGiants
4-7
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph
20
MIADolphins
5-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
3
9
Dolphins
0
10
0
10
20
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
297
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
3.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.04
Passing Yards
159
229
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.10
Rushing Yards
91
68
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-28
-15
Sack EPA
-5.24
-3.31
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
23
15
Penalty EPA
-1.53
-1.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+92.6
Final Difference
135.2
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
24
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U