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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ dolphins week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
4-7
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph
20
MIADolphins
5-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
3
9
Dolphins
0
10
0
10
20

Spread

MIA logo
-6

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
250
297
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
3.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.04
Passing Yards
159
229
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.10
Rushing Yards
91
68
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-28
-15
Sack EPA
-5.24
-3.31
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
23
15
Penalty EPA
-1.53
-1.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+84.0
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.1
35
09/10
-2.6
35
09/17
0.7
57
09/24
-4.7
20
09/28
-3.7
26
11/29
1.9
58
12/06
-1.9
29
12/13
-8.4
5
12/27
-1.8
30
01/03
-3.6
21
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
12/20
0.7
50
12/26
-4.3
17
01/03
-0.4
43
09/12
-2.0
38
09/19
-7.9
8
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
11/21
3.4
77
11/28
2.6
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Giants logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13

EPA

EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
24
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Dolphins logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25

EPA

EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
15
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/26
-3
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-27
L
L
U
10/24
22
W
W
U
11/01
-3
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
U
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/21
7
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O