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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ eagles week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-7
22
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
56°F
10 mph
25
PHIEagles
4-6
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
56°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
9
10
0
3
22
Eagles
0
11
3
11
25

Spread

NYG logo
+5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
402
345
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
6.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.16
Passing Yards
276
214
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.32
Rushing Yards
126
131
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.50
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-21
-22
Sack EPA
-3.61
-5.22
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
91
46
Penalty EPA
-9.58
-5.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.2
Home QB Adjustment
+30.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
133.3
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
09/09
-3.3
26
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
10/07
0.6
51
10/11
-6.4
11
10/22
2.1
63
10/28
-6.7
11
11/12
2.2
64
11/18
-0.4
43
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Value
Ptile
12/03
2.8
73
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
10/11
7.3
91
10/21
4.2
76
10/28
3.2
70
11/11
4.9
79
11/18
-11.7
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
11
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
22
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-21
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-7
L
L
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/06
6
W
W
U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/11
-7
L
L
O
11/18
-41
L
L
U