NYGGiants
5-1
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
017
JAXJaguars
2-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
6
0
10
23
Jaguars
8
3
6
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
454
Total Plays
70
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
200
--
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
22/44(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.25
Rushing Yards
236
144
Rush Attempts
39
22
Yards / Rush
6.1
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
27
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
20%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.78
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.06
--
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
67
81
Penalty EPA
-9.90
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
19
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
7
21
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
30
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U