NYGGiants
10-7
37
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
20
GBPackers
15-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
10
10
0
17
37
Packers
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
388
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
6.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.04
Passing Yards
325
241
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.21
Rushing Yards
95
147
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.54
-17.32
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-23
Sack EPA
-1.45
-9.16
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.59
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
Packers-8.5
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+293
Home nfelo
1,742
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
254.7
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
26
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U