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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ packers week 19, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
10-7
37
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph
20
GBPackers
15-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
31°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
10
10
0
17
37
Packers
3
7
3
7
20

Spread

NYG logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
420
388
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
6.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.04
Passing Yards
325
241
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.21
Rushing Yards
95
147
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.54
-17.32
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-23
Sack EPA
-1.45
-9.16
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.59
-2.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model81.0%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+289
Home nfelo
1,738
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
252.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
Value
Ptile
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67
11/20
-2.8
33
11/28
7.9
93
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94
01/08
8.2
94
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
10/16
5.2
82
10/23
6.9
90
11/06
9.3
96
11/14
6.5
88
11/20
5.4
83
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Giants logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
26
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Packers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
16
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/28
-25
L
L
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
22
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
6
W
L
O
11/06
7
W
W
O
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O