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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ panthers week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-3
31
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
3 mph
33
CARPanthers
2-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
10
3
15
31
Panthers
7
13
0
13
33

Spread

NYG logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
434
350
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
7.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.15
Passing Yards
384
232
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.06
Rushing Yards
50
118
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
0%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
7
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.80
-2.79
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-5
Sack EPA
-0.85
-1.39
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-9.84
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model74.7%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+93.9
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.5
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+42.5
Final Difference
188.1
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
11/19
-1.7
40
11/23
-11.5
1
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22
12/31
-8.4
6
09/09
-3.3
26
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92
12/24
-1.7
40
12/31
-8.6
6
01/07
4.3
82
09/09
0.3
49
09/16
8.4
93
09/23
5.4
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Panthers Defense
Giants logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12

EPA

EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Panthers Offense vs Giants Defense
Panthers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
12
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-10
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
W
U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
12/31
-12
L
L
U
01/07
-5
L
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
L
O
09/23
10
W
W
O