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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ steelers week 8, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-5
18
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
7 mph
26
PITSteelers
5-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
6
0
9
18
Steelers
6
3
1
10
20

Spread

PIT logo
-6

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
394
426
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
237
259
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.13
Rushing Yards
157
167
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-4.41
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-19
Sack EPA
-9.34
-9.12
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
65
50
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model75.5%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.7
Home QB Adjustment
+33.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
195.9
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
-8.6
6
10/08
-7.8
9
11/05
-8.9
5
09/08
-12.2
0
09/15
0.5
52
09/22
4.1
76
09/26
0.9
54
10/06
3.0
69
10/13
-3.9
23
10/20
-10.2
2
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+33.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68
11/19
2.2
65
11/26
2.8
68
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Giants logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
24
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Steelers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26

EPA

EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
28
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
29
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-8
L
W
O
12/31
-1
L
W
O
01/07
17
W
W
U
09/08
-22
L
L
U
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
U
09/26
-5
L
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/20
-25
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/22
10
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O