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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ titans week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-9
36
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
6 mph
7
TENTitans
2-10
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
11
6
10
3
30
Titans
0
0
1
0
1

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
402
207
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
5.5
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.59
Passing Yards
--
146
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.77
Rushing Yards
142
61
Rush Attempts
30
14
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.95
-15.83
Sacks
--
8
Sack Yards
--
-60
Sack EPA
--
-21.66
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
70
39
Penalty EPA
-1.59
-3.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,376
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-55.0
Home QB Adjustment
-38.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
-57.6
Final Difference
-57.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95
10/05
0.5
52
10/12
-9.5
4
10/19
5.9
86
11/03
2.3
68
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-10.4
2
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
Z. Mettenberger headshot

Z. Mettenberger

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-38.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.4
60
11/09
-7.5
9
11/17
2.4
68
11/23
-3.4
28
11/30
-1.4
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Titans Defense
Giants logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
26
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Titans Offense vs Giants Defense
Titans logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
17
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
19
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
26
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O
10/05
10
W
W
U
10/12
-27
L
L
U
10/19
-10
L
L
O
11/03
-16
L
L
O
11/09
-21
L
L
O
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-26
L
L
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/05
-1
L
P
O
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
-2
L
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/09
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/23
-19
L
L
O
11/30
-24
L
L
O