nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bengals week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-0
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
85°F
3 mph
31
CINBengals
1-0
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
85°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
7
3
27
Bengals
7
3
14
7
31

Spread

CIN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
400
350
Total Plays
70
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
261
302
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.04
Rushing Yards
139
48
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.46
-12.09
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-0.22
-4.83
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
29
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-2.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
09/15
-2.0
34
09/23
-6.5
10
09/29
-1.2
40
10/06
7.3
92
10/13
-0.0
49
10/20
3.3
72
10/27
5.3
81
11/03
-5.1
16
12/01
-7.2
8
09/07
-2.2
35
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
11/03
6.6
88
11/07
8.6
94
11/17
5.4
81
12/01
4.4
78
12/09
6.6
88
12/15
2.1
64
12/22
5.1
80
12/28
10.2
97
01/04
2.7
68
09/07
-4.7
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
14
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
14
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
10
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
4
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
4
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-5
L
L
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
01/05
-3
L
W
O
09/07
16
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
17
W
W
O
11/07
-1
L
W
O
11/17
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
18
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U