JAXJaguars
1-0
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
85°F
3 mph
31
CINBengals
1-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
85°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
7
3
27
Bengals
7
3
14
7
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
350
Total Plays
70
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
261
302
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.04
Rushing Yards
139
48
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.46
-12.09
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-0.22
-4.83
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
29
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-2.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U