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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bengals week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-3
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
0
24
CINBengals
2-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
0
7
21
Bengals
0
0
14
10
24

Spread

JAX logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
341
420
Total Plays
55
55
Yards / Play
6.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.24
Passing Yards
202
342
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.55
Rushing Yards
139
78
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-6
Sack EPA
-1.02
-1.20
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
38
Penalty EPA
-0.98
-3.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
204.8
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
10/04
1.4
53
10/11
-9.8
4
10/18
0.9
51
10/25
9.4
95
11/01
4.1
75
11/15
-2.8
25
11/22
-1.9
30
09/12
-0.3
51
09/19
-8.0
8
09/26
2.8
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
21
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22

EPA

EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
23
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-11
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
U
12/06
-12
L
L
U
12/13
-23
L
L
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
O
01/03
-35
L
L
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U