JAXJaguars
0-3
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
024
CINBengals
2-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
0
7
21
Bengals
0
0
14
10
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
420
Total Plays
55
55
Yards / Play
6.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.24
Passing Yards
202
342
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.55
Rushing Yards
139
78
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-6
Sack EPA
-1.02
-1.20
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
38
Penalty EPA
-0.98
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,323
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
203.5
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
21
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
22
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U