JAXJaguars
2-2
25
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
020
BUFBills
3-1
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
11
0
0
14
25
Bills
0
7
0
13
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
476
388
Total Plays
83
55
Yards / Play
5.7
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.16
Passing Yards
278
--
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.28
Rushing Yards
198
29
Rush Attempts
41
14
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
56%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.50
-2.32
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-11.63
--
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
56
109
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-15.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-61.5
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
3
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
28
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U