JAXJaguars
3-6
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
15 mph
14
CLEBrowns
3-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
3
10
Browns
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
34.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
334
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
195
186
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.08
Rushing Yards
108
148
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.17
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-1.58
-2.88
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
81
70
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
29
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U