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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ browns week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-6
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
15 mph
14
CLEBrowns
3-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
3
10
Browns
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

CLE logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
34.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
303
334
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
195
186
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.08
Rushing Yards
108
148
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.17
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-1.58
-2.88
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
81
70
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-8.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,390
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
-5.1
18
10/02
-7.5
7
10/09
-1.4
41
10/16
-6.3
13
10/24
-8.0
6
10/30
-8.7
4
11/13
-6.0
15
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
01/02
-8.0
7
09/11
-2.3
35
09/18
2.2
67
09/25
-1.6
39
10/02
3.0
72
10/16
-0.8
46
10/23
-7.1
9
10/30
-1.5
40
11/06
-4.5
22
11/13
0.0
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Jaguars logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30

EPA

EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Browns logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
24
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
29
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-17
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
-29
L
L
U
09/25
-6
L
L
U
10/02
-13
L
L
U
10/09
-10
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/24
5
W
W
U
10/30
-10
L
P
U
11/13
14
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-32
L
L
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/18
8
W
W
O
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-18
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
3
W
P
U
10/30
-10
L
L
U
11/06
-18
L
L
U
11/13
-1
L
L
U