JAXJaguars
1-1
38
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
010
LACChargers
1-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
16
15
7
38
Chargers
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
312
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.20
Rushing Yards
151
26
Rush Attempts
36
12
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.34
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-5.04
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
10
54
Penalty EPA
-1.10
-6.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
Chargers-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+227
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+30.9
Final Difference
192.6
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U