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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chargers week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-1
38
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
10
LACChargers
1-1
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
16
15
7
38
Chargers
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
415
312
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.20
Rushing Yards
151
26
Rush Attempts
36
12
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.34
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-5.04
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
10
54
Penalty EPA
-1.10
-6.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+227
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+30.9
Final Difference
192.6
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
11/21
-4.5
22
11/28
-3.3
29
12/05
-4.5
21
12/12
-12.7
1
12/19
-4.4
22
12/26
1.3
62
01/02
-4.5
21
01/09
2.7
74
09/11
-2.9
29
09/18
6.5
90
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Value
Ptile
11/21
13.7
99
11/28
0.9
60
12/05
6.5
89
12/12
5.6
86
12/16
2.3
69
12/26
2.0
68
01/02
4.5
82
01/09
-0.5
49
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27

EPA

EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
14
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
18
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-20
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-30
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
-40
L
L
O
01/09
15
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
O
09/18
24
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
4
W
L
O
11/28
-15
L
L
U
12/05
19
W
W
O
12/12
16
W
W
O
12/16
-6
L
L
O
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
O
01/09
-3
L
L
O
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U