JAXJaguars
1-5
29
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
039
LACChargers
1-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
9
0
23
Chargers
9
7
20
3
39
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
484
Total Plays
62
78
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.03
Passing Yards
156
349
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.33
Rushing Yards
142
135
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.18
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-19
-2
Sack EPA
-7.76
-1.08
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-7.93
-5.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+12.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-21.7
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
23
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U