JAXJaguars
2-3
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
2-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
7
6
27
Colts
0
13
6
15
34
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
436
Total Plays
60
76
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.22
Passing Yards
136
--
Comp/Att
20/23(87%)
42/59(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.28
Rushing Yards
243
47
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
7.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
8
22
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
50%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.16
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-7.68
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
44
52
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-9.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.3
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
14
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
17
32
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
0-10
O/U