JAXJaguars
3-3
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
00
INDColts
2-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
14
6
7
0
27
Colts
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
518
232
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
8.0
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.29
Passing Yards
330
136
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.40
Rushing Yards
188
96
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.89
--
Sacks
1
10
Sack Yards
--
-64
Sack EPA
-3.90
-13.15
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
34
55
Penalty EPA
-2.45
-5.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+51.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
+29.8
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U