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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-3
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
0
INDColts
2-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
14
6
7
0
27
Colts
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

JAX logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
518
232
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
8.0
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.29
Passing Yards
330
136
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.40
Rushing Yards
188
96
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.89
--
Sacks
1
10
Sack Yards
--
-64
Sack EPA
-3.90
-13.15
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
34
55
Penalty EPA
-2.45
-5.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
+29.8
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
10/08
-6.3
14
10/15
-3.2
30
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
18
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
31
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/08
21
W
W
U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O