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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 10, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
23
INDColts
4-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
3
0
8
17
Colts
11
3
0
3
17

Spread

JAX logo
+10

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
333
295
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.11
Passing Yards
154
168
Comp/Att
16/36(44%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.09
Rushing Yards
179
127
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
7.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-5.32
-1.61
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
79
47
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-7.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,358
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
12/06
-8.9
4
09/12
2.2
69
09/19
0.4
55
09/26
-6.8
11
10/03
2.2
69
10/11
7.3
92
10/17
-2.2
36
10/24
2.7
73
10/31
-3.4
28
11/04
4.9
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
21
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
19
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/12
-12
L
L
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-9
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
O
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
12
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/04
15
W
W
O