JAXJaguars
2-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
4-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
3
0
8
17
Colts
11
3
0
3
17
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
295
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.11
Passing Yards
154
168
Comp/Att
16/36(44%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.09
Rushing Yards
179
127
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
7.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.70
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-5.32
-1.61
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
79
47
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+232
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U