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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
4-5
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
33
INDColts
5-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
0
6
13
Colts
7
3
14
7
31

Spread

IND logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
308
389
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.20
Passing Yards
279
125
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.01
Rushing Yards
29
264
Rush Attempts
9
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.38
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.25
-1.63
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-2.96
-4.79
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
81
--
Penalty EPA
-6.61
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model49.6%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+6.0
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-3.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
01/21
10.9
98
02/04
8.0
93
09/06
-8.3
8
09/16
3.2
71
12/16
1.6
58
12/23
11.7
98
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-1.6
41
12/31
-2.9
33
09/08
2.0
67
09/15
-1.7
41
09/22
6.0
86
09/29
0.9
60
10/06
-2.2
37
10/20
7.0
90
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
-4.9
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
19
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
17
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
2
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-17
L
L
U
09/08
-14
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U
09/19
13
W
W
U
09/29
2
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-23
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
-18
L
L
U
09/08
-6
L
P
O
09/15
2
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
L
U