JAXJaguars
4-5
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
033
INDColts
5-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
0
6
13
Colts
7
3
14
7
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
389
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.20
Passing Yards
279
125
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.01
Rushing Yards
29
264
Rush Attempts
9
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.25
-1.63
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-2.96
-4.79
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
81
--
Penalty EPA
-6.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+6.0
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-0.8
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
19
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U