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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
11-4
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
17
INDColts
8-7
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
10
6
23
Colts
3
7
7
0
17

Spread

JAX logo
-4

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
370
204
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
5.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.11
Passing Yards
249
135
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.39
Rushing Yards
121
69
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.90
-5.94
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-2.56
-3.69
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-4.57
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
-78.4
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
-2.6
33
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.9
58
11/23
-2.8
30
11/30
0.2
53
12/07
3.2
74
12/14
16.0
100
12/21
5.6
87
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
3.9
73
11/29
-1.8
30
12/06
1.6
55
12/13
2.5
63
12/20
1.9
58
12/27
-1.9
30
01/03
-5.2
15
01/09
4.4
75
12/14
-2.7
31
12/22
-0.4
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
8
10
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
8
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
2
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/30
22
W
W
U
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
28
W
W
O
12/21
14
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
4
W
L
O
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
-4
L
L
U
12/07
-17
L
L
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/22
-21
L
L
O