JAXJaguars
4-12
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
026
INDColts
7-9
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
6
0
10
0
23
Colts
7
13
0
3
3
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
429
Total Plays
68
77
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.06
Passing Yards
206
252
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.09
Rushing Yards
113
177
Rush Attempts
34
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.75
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-19
-12
Sack EPA
-2.68
-6.09
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
57
15
Penalty EPA
-6.11
-2.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-39.2
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-39.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
24
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
20
27
EPA / Rush
16
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U