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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ commanders week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
-
22
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0
28
WASCommanders
-
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
9
10
22
Commanders
7
7
0
14
28

Spread

WAS logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
383
392
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.09
Passing Yards
260
307
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.20
Rushing Yards
123
85
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
25%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.91
-13.94
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-4.09
-1.48
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
90
63
Penalty EPA
-10.62
-5.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
91.8
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11
11/21
-4.5
22
11/28
-3.3
29
12/05
-4.5
21
12/12
-12.7
1
12/19
-4.4
22
12/26
1.3
62
01/02
-4.5
21
01/09
2.7
74
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/31
-3.4
28
11/04
4.9
84
11/14
-4.9
20
11/21
0.2
54
11/28
0.5
56
12/05
-1.1
44
12/18
-5.3
18
12/25
0.9
60
01/02
-3.4
28
01/09
-9.8
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Jaguars logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11

EPA

EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
14
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
30
29
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
17
9
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Commanders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
23
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-20
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-30
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
-40
L
L
O
01/09
15
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
P
O
12/26
-42
L
L
O
01/02
-4
L
W
U
01/09
15
W
W
U