JAXJaguars
-
22
TBD
FedExField
70°F
028
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
9
10
22
Commanders
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
392
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.09
Passing Yards
260
307
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.20
Rushing Yards
123
85
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
25%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.91
-13.94
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-4.09
-1.48
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
90
63
Penalty EPA
-10.62
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
Commanders-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+7.3
Final Difference
99.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
30
29
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
17
9
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
23
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U