JAXJaguars
2-1
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
029
PHIEagles
3-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
8
0
0
7
15
Eagles
0
20
0
9
29
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
401
Total Plays
46
78
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.07
Passing Yards
148
191
Comp/Att
11/23(48%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.47
Rushing Yards
71
210
Rush Attempts
19
50
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.28
-8.75
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-13.42
-2.80
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-2.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+38.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Eagles Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U