JAXJaguars
5-9
12
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
5-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
3
6
12
Falcons
14
3
0
7
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
518
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
4.8
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.03
Passing Yards
173
383
Comp/Att
14/33(42%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.23
Rushing Yards
115
135
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.74
-7.43
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-1
Sack EPA
-3.99
-1.13
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
36
64
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-5.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+62.6
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.0
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-37.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-37.9
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
16
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U