JAXJaguars
1-7
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
38°F
23 mph
24
GBPackers
6-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
38°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
1
7
3
14
Packers
0
17
0
7
24
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
395
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
4.3
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.19
Passing Yards
151
315
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.01
Rushing Yards
109
80
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-8.44
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-4.00
-1.62
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
86
35
Penalty EPA
-8.48
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model87.7%
Spread Pick
Packers-13.5
Expected Value
+11.6%
Cover Probability
58.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+377
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+121.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.5
Away QB Adjustment
-95.5
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
340.9
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
J. Luton
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-95.5
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U