JAXJaguars
2-2
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
4 mph
34
CARPanthers
2-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
7
3
27
Panthers
14
1
7
6
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
507
445
Total Plays
77
61
Yards / Play
6.6
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.08
Passing Yards
358
160
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.00
Rushing Yards
149
285
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
4.8
10.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-19.01
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-21
Sack EPA
-13.89
-3.26
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
84
70
Penalty EPA
-7.51
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-106.6
Away QB Adjustment
-85.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-85.8
Value
Ptile
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-106.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
25
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Panthers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
27
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U