JAXJaguars
2-9
7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
037
LARRams
7-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
10
6
14
7
37
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
197
418
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
3.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.28
Passing Yards
136
290
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.34
Rushing Yards
61
128
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.72
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.12
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-5
Sack EPA
-3.75
-1.09
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-5.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.8%
Spread Pick
Rams-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+377
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,319
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+21.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-12.3
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
343.6
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U