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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ rams week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-9
7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
37
LARRams
7-4
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
10
6
14
7
37

Spread

LAR logo
-14

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
197
418
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
3.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.28
Passing Yards
136
290
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.34
Rushing Yards
61
128
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.72
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
42%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.12
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-5
Sack EPA
-3.75
-1.09
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+380
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,316
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+21.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-12.3
Market Regression
+6.0
Final Difference
344.1
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Value
Ptile
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11
11/21
-4.5
22
11/28
-3.3
29
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
09/19
0.1
54
09/26
8.3
93
10/03
2.9
75
10/07
2.3
70
10/17
4.1
80
10/24
4.9
84
10/31
4.3
81
11/07
-0.4
50
11/15
-4.9
20
11/28
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Jaguars logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Rams logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22

EPA

EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
31
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
17
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-20
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
3
W
L
O
09/26
10
W
W
O
10/03
-17
L
L
O
10/07
9
W
W
U
10/17
27
W
W
U
10/24
9
W
L
U
10/31
16
W
L
O
11/07
-12
L
L
U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/28
-8
L
L
O