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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ seahawks week 8, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-5
7
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
8 mph
31
SEASeahawks
2-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Seahawks
7
10
7
7
31

Spread

SEA logo
-4

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
309
229
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.19
Passing Yards
227
160
Comp/Att
32/54(59%)
20/24(83%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.26
Rushing Yards
82
69
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-35
Sack EPA
-2.42
-6.13
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
93
40
Penalty EPA
-11.16
-2.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.7
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-62.7
Home QB Adjustment
-62.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
140.0
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-62.7
Value
Ptile
10/26
-12.0
1
12/01
-7.2
10
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30
12/21
-2.1
35
12/28
10.2
96
10/23
-4.5
17
12/03
-2.3
36
10/17
-2.7
33
10/25
-5.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jaguars logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Seahawks logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
3
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
11
W
W
U
01/03
3
W
L
O
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/12
12
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/07
-9
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
P
10/25
-3
L
W
U