JAXJaguars
1-5
7
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
8 mph
31
SEASeahawks
2-5
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Seahawks
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
229
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.19
Passing Yards
227
160
Comp/Att
32/54(59%)
20/24(83%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.26
Rushing Yards
82
69
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-35
Sack EPA
-2.42
-6.13
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
93
40
Penalty EPA
-11.16
-2.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,359
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.7
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-62.7
Home QB Adjustment
-62.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+12.9
Final Difference
138.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-62.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U