JAXJaguars
1-4
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
10 mph
17
PITSteelers
3-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
3
13
Steelers
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
370
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
3.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
76
185
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.18
Rushing Yards
133
185
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-33
-15
Sack EPA
-6.73
-4.00
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
22
65
Penalty EPA
-7.10
-8.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+320
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,343
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
+12.3
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Value
Ptile
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
32
7
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
28
RZ Efficiency
20
15
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U