JAXJaguars
1-3
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
030
HOUTexans
0-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
0
7
14
Texans
0
10
3
17
30
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
486
Total Plays
73
58
Yards / Play
5.0
8.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.19
Passing Yards
289
357
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.32
Rushing Yards
75
129
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
-9.42
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-12
-2
Sack EPA
-11.84
-0.87
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-3.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
101.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U