JAXJaguars
1-8
37
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
043
HOUTexans
8-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
10
10
7
3
37
Texans
7
10
3
14
9
43
Spread
+15.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
653
Total Plays
66
92
Yards / Play
6.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.17
Passing Yards
372
504
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
43/55(78%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.35
Rushing Yards
86
149
Rush Attempts
29
35
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
39
Passing 1st downs
12
26
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.36
-12.91
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-23
Sack EPA
-5.65
-4.65
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
54
20
Penalty EPA
-4.72
-1.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-15.5
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market89.1%
Model89.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+386
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,309
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-12.9
Final Difference
365.0
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U