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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
7-4
25
TBD
Nissan Stadium
38°F
7 mph
3
TENTitans
1-10
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
38°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
11
7
0
25
Titans
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

JAX logo
-6

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
274
188
Total Plays
57
55
Yards / Play
4.8
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.53
Passing Yards
202
121
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.65
Rushing Yards
72
67
Rush Attempts
28
14
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
13
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
23%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.26
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-20
Sack EPA
-5.01
-4.80
Penalties
13
10
Penalty Yards
98
86
Penalty EPA
-9.72
-10.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-156
Home nfelo
1,319
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+16.6
Base HFA
+44.7
Divisional Adj
-20.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
09/14
-0.4
46
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.6
56
10/06
5.0
85
10/12
-2.6
33
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.9
58
11/23
-2.8
30
C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
09/14
-5.9
14
09/21
-5.0
18
09/28
-7.8
6
10/05
-6.6
10
10/12
-6.4
11
10/19
-2.2
35
10/26
-5.2
16
11/02
-6.3
11
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
3.8
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
12
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
5
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
28
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
13
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
-21
L
L
O
09/28
-26
L
L
U
10/05
1
W
W
O
10/12
-10
L
L
U
10/19
-18
L
L
O
10/26
-24
L
L
O
11/02
-7
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-6
L
W
O