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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
9-7
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
11 mph
28
TENTitans
5-11
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
7
20
Titans
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
362
327
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
152
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.02
Rushing Yards
82
175
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.35
-5.94
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-2.20
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
29
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+17.0
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79
12/04
5.8
85
12/10
-3.4
27
12/17
5.4
84
12/24
-5.3
17
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.0
28
12/11
-2.4
33
12/18
-5.7
14
09/10
-11.1
2
09/17
2.3
66
09/24
-8.6
6
10/01
-1.6
39
10/08
-1.0
43
10/15
-8.4
7
12/24
-4.9
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
28
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
28
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-18
L
L
U
12/31
26
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
5
W
W
O
11/02
-4
L
L
U
11/12
-14
L
L
U
11/19
-20
L
L
O
11/26
7
W
W
U
12/03
-3
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U