JAXJaguars
9-7
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
11 mph
28
TENTitans
5-11
TBD
Nissan Stadium
41°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
7
20
Titans
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
327
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
152
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.02
Rushing Yards
82
175
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.35
-5.94
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-2.20
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
29
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+17.0
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U