NYJJets
3-4
10
TBD
Soldier Field
48°F
18 mph
24
CHIBears
3-3
TBD
Soldier Field
48°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Bears
7
0
7
10
24
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
395
Total Plays
54
65
Yards / Play
3.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
150
216
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.26
Rushing Yards
57
179
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.05
-2.45
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+47.6
Home QB Adjustment
+32.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.5
Market Regression
+52.4
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+32.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Bears Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U