NYJJets
0-2
0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
6 mph
26
DENBroncos
2-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
82°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Broncos
7
10
3
6
26
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
162
343
Total Plays
53
64
Yards / Play
3.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.55
+0.01
Passing Yards
119
223
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.48
Rushing Yards
43
120
Rush Attempts
13
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.78
-7.64
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-41
-12
Sack EPA
-8.29
-3.60
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
90
--
Penalty EPA
-10.58
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+276
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,356
Home Field
+73.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+39.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
-23.2
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
Value
Ptile
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
29
16
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
21
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U