NYJJets
1-3
31
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
9 mph
21
DENBroncos
1-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
10
7
23
Broncos
7
6
0
8
21
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
310
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.13
Passing Yards
173
169
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.34
Rushing Yards
234
141
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
7.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
+3.57
-7.75
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-27
Sack EPA
-5.51
-12.80
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
71
31
Penalty EPA
-11.06
-5.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model61.7%
Spread Pick
Broncos-2.0
Expected Value
+16.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+73.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+86.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-69.8
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
82.6
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U