NYJJets
5-7
0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
3 mph
23
DENBroncos
3-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Broncos
10
3
7
3
23
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
100
273
Total Plays
48
68
Yards / Play
2.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.61
-0.05
Passing Yards
41
189
Comp/Att
8/21(38%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-1.10
+0.07
Rushing Yards
59
84
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
17
Passing 1st downs
1
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.40
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-11
Sack EPA
-7.49
-2.94
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
21
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-2.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model44.6%
Spread Pick
Broncos+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+94.7
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
37.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
31
22
EPA / Rush
16
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U