NYJJets
1-1
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
11 mph
21
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
14
0
3
17
Browns
0
3
11
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
325
Total Plays
63
75
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.09
Passing Yards
161
192
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.04
Rushing Yards
107
133
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.60
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-30
Sack EPA
-2.13
-6.34
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
55
41
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
0-9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U