NYJJets
4-5
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
16 mph
15
TBBuccaneers
2-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Buccaneers
3
0
6
6
15
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
271
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
4.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.13
Passing Yards
219
181
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.03
Rushing Yards
56
90
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.31
-3.43
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-43
-6
Sack EPA
-7.71
-2.10
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
77
50
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-5.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+75.7
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.6
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+19.3
Final Difference
41.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U