NYJJets
0-7
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
11 mph
35
KCChiefs
6-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
6
0
0
9
Chiefs
14
7
7
7
35
Spread
-19.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
496
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
3.9
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.24
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
35/47(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.64
Rushing Yards
93
50
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
8
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.83
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-2.03
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
61
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-3.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-20.0
Current
-19.5
Model
-19.5
Win Probability
Market93.4%
Model93.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+436
Home nfelo
1,707
Away nfelo
1,290
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
-11.6
Final Difference
460.3
Model Spread
-19.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
10
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
27
Interceptions / Game
23
6
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U