NYJJets
3-5
6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
16 mph
13
MIADolphins
4-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
3
6
Dolphins
0
6
0
1
7
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
168
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
4.4
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.30
Passing Yards
202
104
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.32
Rushing Yards
80
64
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
7
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
15%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.69
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-35
Sack EPA
-5.30
-8.99
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
55
Penalty EPA
-7.72
-6.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,419
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.4
Home QB Adjustment
-47.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-47.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U