NYJJets
7-8
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
12 mph
7
MIADolphins
8-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
14
0
6
20
Dolphins
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
296
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.13
Rushing Yards
154
92
Rush Attempts
42
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.41
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
36
38
Penalty EPA
-0.68
-8.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model68.2%
Spread Pick
Jets+7.0
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
132.6
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U