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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
7-8
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
12 mph
7
MIADolphins
8-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
14
0
6
20
Dolphins
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

NYJ logo
+7

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
374
296
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.13
Rushing Yards
154
92
Rush Attempts
42
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.41
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
36
38
Penalty EPA
-0.68
-8.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
131.2
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
10/13
-7.2
10
10/20
-1.3
43
10/27
-6.6
13
11/03
-3.4
28
11/17
-15.3
0
11/24
-10.7
3
12/01
-8.0
7
12/08
3.7
75
12/15
-3.8
26
12/22
6.5
88
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
11/11
-1.0
44
11/17
-2.7
34
11/24
3.4
73
12/01
5.6
85
12/08
4.4
81
12/15
3.8
75
12/22
-12.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
18
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
11
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
-40
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-23
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-20
L
L
U
12/08
10
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
P
O
12/22
11
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/24
-4
L
W
U
12/01
20
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-19
L
L
U