NYJJets
1-3
20
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
63°F
8 mph
27
ATLFalcons
1-3
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
6
11
20
Falcons
10
10
0
7
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
450
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.23
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.34
Rushing Yards
64
108
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.91
-8.71
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-3.58
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
58
66
Penalty EPA
-9.42
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,360
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-23.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-23.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
32
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
24
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U