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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ giants week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-3
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph
10
NYGGiants
2-5
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
7
0
0
3
3
13
Giants
3
0
7
0
0
10

Spread

NYJ logo
NYG logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
35

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
251
194
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.0
2.8
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.43
Passing Yards
193
-9
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
6/14(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
-0.6
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-1.24
Rushing Yards
58
203
Rush Attempts
22
52
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
12
12
Passing 1st downs
8
--
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
13%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.22
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-47
-16
Sack EPA
-12.82
-5.24
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
85
73
Penalty EPA
-12.14
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+9.7
Base HFA
+43.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.7
Home QB Adjustment
-36.5
Away QB Adjustment
-71.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-71.2
Value
Ptile
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16
10/01
4.0
75
10/08
-4.3
23
10/15
-6.0
14
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-36.5
Value
Ptile
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15
09/12
5.1
84
09/19
1.6
65
11/07
-12.3
1
11/21
0.5
56
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
10/15
-0.2
47
10/22
1.4
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Giants Defense
Jets logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29

EPA

EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
32
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Giants Offense vs Jets Defense
Giants logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
29
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
31
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/08
10
W
W
O
10/15
6
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-6
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U