NYJJets
1-2
12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
10 mph
31
JAXJaguars
2-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
3
9
12
Jaguars
3
13
7
6
29
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
503
Total Plays
52
75
Yards / Play
3.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.01
Passing Yards
144
377
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.29
Rushing Yards
34
126
Rush Attempts
14
34
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.70
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-3.32
-2.30
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
43
89
Penalty EPA
-2.96
-5.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-15.2
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
Value
Ptile
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U