NYJJets
1-0
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
63°F
15 mph
31
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
63°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
14
7
3
0
24
Packers
3
13
15
0
31
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
392
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
4.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.15
Passing Yards
166
310
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.23
Rushing Yards
147
80
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.65
-5.44
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-36
Sack EPA
-2.14
-6.56
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
82
34
Penalty EPA
-8.24
-0.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
3-6-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U