nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ patriots week 7, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-3
26
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
13 mph
29
NEPatriots
3-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
7
3
3
13
0
26
Patriots
14
0
7
3
3
27

Spread

NYJ logo
+11

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
403
381
Total Plays
78
74
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.18
Passing Yards
297
250
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
106
131
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.69
-4.98
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-4.37
-2.04
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.8
Market Regression
-29.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Value
Ptile
12/11
4.5
79
12/18
-6.3
13
12/24
-6.7
11
01/01
-3.4
29
09/09
5.5
84
09/16
-4.9
19
09/23
-3.2
28
09/30
-9.9
2
10/08
-5.6
15
10/14
-2.0
36
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
01/01
2.9
72
01/14
14.3
99
01/22
-0.3
50
02/05
1.9
65
09/09
4.6
80
09/16
-1.1
41
09/23
5.8
85
09/30
9.4
95
10/07
0.9
55
10/14
5.2
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
15
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26

EPA

EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
3
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
1
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/18
-26
L
L
O
12/24
-15
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
L
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/16
-17
L
L
U
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-34
L
L
U
10/08
-6
L
W
U
10/14
26
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/14
35
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
L
U
02/05
-4
L
L
U
09/09
21
W
W
U
09/16
-2
L
L
U
09/23
-1
L
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-1
L
L
O