NYJJets
3-3
26
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
13 mph
29
NEPatriots
3-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
7
3
3
13
0
26
Patriots
14
0
7
3
3
27
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
381
Total Plays
78
74
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.18
Passing Yards
297
250
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
106
131
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.69
-4.98
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-4.37
-2.04
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.8
Market Regression
-29.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U