NYJJets
6-3
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
2 mph
10
NEPatriots
5-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
0
3
Patriots
0
3
0
1
4
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
103
297
Total Plays
49
59
Yards / Play
2.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.32
Passing Yards
44
198
Comp/Att
9/22(41%)
23/27(85%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.05
Rushing Yards
59
99
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
13
Passing 1st downs
3
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
21%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-33
-48
Sack EPA
-6.08
-9.46
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
+11.4
Away Bye Adj
-31.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
-17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
32
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U