NYJJets
5-10
6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
13°F
14 mph
26
NEPatriots
12-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
13°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
3
6
Patriots
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
-16
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
330
Total Plays
59
80
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.07
Passing Yards
207
183
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
19/40(48%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.12
Rushing Yards
40
147
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
0%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-12
Sack EPA
-4.80
-4.15
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
84
49
Penalty EPA
-11.35
-8.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-17.5
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model91.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots-16.0
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+447
Home nfelo
1,727
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+30.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+79.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-88.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
410.7
Model Spread
-17.5
Quarterbacks
B. Petty
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-88.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U