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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ patriots week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
5-10
6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
13°F
14 mph
26
NEPatriots
12-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
13°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
3
6
Patriots
7
14
3
0
24

Spread

NE logo
-16

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
247
330
Total Plays
59
80
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.07
Passing Yards
207
183
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
19/40(48%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.12
Rushing Yards
40
147
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
0%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-12
Sack EPA
-4.80
-4.15
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
84
49
Penalty EPA
-11.35
-8.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-17.5

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model91.5%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-16.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+449
Home nfelo
1,728
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+79.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-88.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
411.9
Model Spread
-17.5

Quarterbacks

B. Petty headshot

B. Petty

Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-88.3
Value
Ptile
11/13
-3.8
21
12/11
-6.6
9
12/17
-6.6
9
12/24
-11.1
1
12/17
-5.4
18
12/24
-5.6
17
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Value
Ptile
10/15
0.5
55
10/22
2.7
71
10/29
3.6
78
11/12
7.0
90
11/19
8.8
95
11/26
1.4
63
12/03
-3.0
31
12/11
-5.6
17
12/17
0.1
52
12/24
1.6
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
24

EPA

EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
8
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
3
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-5
L
W
O
11/02
13
W
W
O
11/12
-5
L
L
U
11/26
-8
L
L
O
12/03
7
W
W
O
12/10
-23
L
L
U
12/17
-12
L
W
O
12/24
-7
L
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
7
W
L
U
10/22
16
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/12
25
W
W
O
11/19
25
W
W
U
11/26
18
W
W
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/11
-7
L
L
U
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
21
W
W
O