NYJJets
4-11
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
38
NEPatriots
10-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Patriots
7
14
1
10
32
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
375
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
4.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.51
+0.17
Passing Yards
135
244
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.39
Rushing Yards
104
131
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.68
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-16.28
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-6
Sack EPA
-12.87
-1.54
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.89
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+310
Home nfelo
1,654
Away nfelo
1,356
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U