NYJJets
5-8
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
9-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
10
3
6
19
Saints
10
7
0
14
31
Spread
+16
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
412
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
4.3
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.00
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.05
Rushing Yards
124
131
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-14.29
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-0.50
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
50
92
Penalty EPA
-7.84
-8.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+356
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+93.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-96.4
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
B. Petty
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-96.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
6
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U