NYJJets
7-8
6
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
23
SEASeahawks
7-8
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
0
6
Seahawks
10
7
3
3
23
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
346
Total Plays
67
71
Yards / Play
4.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.08
Passing Yards
204
148
Comp/Att
23/46(50%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.08
Rushing Yards
75
198
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.63
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-36
-35
Sack EPA
-4.68
-6.01
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
25
Penalty EPA
-1.86
-1.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model48.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
12.1
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. White
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
26
25
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Seahawks Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U